Winter’s Bitter Chill..

It’s been too long since I’ve posted…it’s time to get back in the swing, especially given this crazy winter weather we’ve been having. I guess I couldn’t have picked a better time to release the second book in the Katie series called Katie and the Magic Umbrella:On Snowflake Trail. It teaches kids about blizzards, how snow, sleet, and freezing rain are made. It also teaches cold weather safety, important stuff to know this time of year.

Since late November we’ve had more than our share of cold weather and a Christmas Eve blizzard to boot! Don’t know about you, but I’m really missing those occasional winter days in North Texas when we can see sun and highs in the 60’s and 70’s. Looking back at December, I noticed that we had 19 of 31 days where our high didn’t make it above 50 degrees. We also had 15 official freezes in December. The average is 10.  Of course the day I remember fondly was Dec 23rd..when DFW hit 75 degrees!  What a day that was! The next day…a blizzard that we’ll remember for years to come.

I think many Americans are probably questioning the validity of “Global Warming”, and they should be, given that we are experiencing one the coldest winters in many years with new studies showing that global temperatures last decade actually cooled. (This is a topic for another day )

I digress….

Tonight we are expecting another blast from the arctic that should be taken seriously. The front will arrive between 11pm and 2am Thursday morning…winds will shift abruptly to the north and howl all day Thursday and Thursday night, finally calming down late Friday. Wintery precip is possible, mainly in the form of freezing light rain or drizzle between 3am and 10am Thursday, then any lift for precip will shift east and as the cold, dry arctic air settles in. Once this happens, dew points will drop so drastically that I expect the clouds to start clearing out as early as Thursday evening and Thursday night.

The weather pattern that brings this kind of cold is called the McFarland Signature where a strong high pressure ridge at 500mb develops over Alaska and the northern Pacific creating a huge buckle (trough) that sends the bitter cold diving straight south into the central and eastern U.S.

While the cold will last about 3-4 days, it will be severe enough that if you don’t prepare your home and pets and businesses, you could be in for a wet, expensive mess. Pipe breaks and property damage will no doubt be in the news the next several days because people didn’t drip faucets or winterize their pipes and outdoor faucets properly. Temperatures will be dropping during the day Thursday and leading to our 2 coldest mornings..Friday and Saturday when temperatures will likely drop to between 8-12 degrees in some of our northern burbs, to 12-15 for our metro areas. Saturday morning should be the coldest with clear skies and the lightest winds. As new model runs come in we’ll know better whether we’re underestimating how cold it will truly get.

Fortunately, by Saturday and Sunday our highs will gradually climb above freezing again. Highs will be back into the 40’s by Sunday.

Looking ahead…our long-range models are showing signs that another big storm will develop over Texas that could spell trouble (more snow?) for North Texas by Friday of next week. Stay tuned!

I love it when mother nature cooperates with my forecast!

North Texas woke up to its first snowfall of the season today. Might seem a bit early, but just 2 years ago we had snow on Thanksgiving Day. Remember that?

What fun to see the snow piling up on rooftops this morning.. and we didn’t  have to worry about slick or icy roads. The beauty of having snow this early when the ground is still so warm. Here are a few shots from my neighborhood about 8am.

What I also loved is that I could enjoy the fact that it was snowing and I didn’t have to be at the TV station. What a blessing!

Get ready..we aren’t done yet.

Looking at the latest computer guidance, arctic air will arrive tonight and tomorrow. While this very cold and relatively shallow air seeps in at the surface and mid levels…a strong upper trough will arrive late Thursday and early Friday creating the lift needed to squeeze out another round of snow for mainly the central and southern half of North Texas. While I think we’ll see snow here in the DFW area..it could be a more significant event for areas to our south  and east. From San Angelo to College Station and even the NW side of Houston could see snow on Friday.

We’ll dry out Friday night and the weekend looks dry. Upper 40’s Saturday, much warmer by Sunday.

After a string of seasonably cool, sunny days a strong cold front arrives in North Texas early this afternoon. A few storms are possible, but the biggest change will come with the gusty north winds that will pick up this afternoon and evening and take temperatures down sharply overnight tonight.

Monday will be dry and much cooler. Do expect some sunshine mixed with clouds during the day. Highs will struggle to make it into the 50s, but if we see enough sun, 60 is possible. Bigger changes come Tuesday into Wednesday.

A potent upper level low is winding up over New Mexico and Arizona today. It will slowly shift eastward beginning Monday. This will spread thicker clouds ahead of it into North Texas.

By Tuesday, the lift associated with this system will finally start to squeeze enough moisture out of a very dry atmosphere as moisture slowly rides northwest along the back of a developing surface low along the Gulf coast. We will see rain develop quickly and continue much of the day Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Wednesday is the day to watch…

Here is an early forecast from one of the long range models used to forecast by most meteorologists.

6am Wednesday- Blue Shading Indicates Snow

By 12Z Wednesday this image shows some snow across West-Central Texas where temperature profiles will be cold enough for a snow/sleet mix that could reach the ground. As I looked at the midday Wednesday forecast, several models do show the temperature profile in the DFW area favorable for about a 6-10 hour timeframe (6am-4pm) where if precip falls, it could be in the form of a rain/sleet mix, especially late morning/early afternoon as we get the colder air funneling in on the backside of the storm.

The forecast challenges…

1. Will there be enough moisture left by the time the upper low crosses?

2. Will the 500-850mb temps be cold enough when the moisture is available?

Keep in mind, that ground temps are still very warm…so any winter precip that does make it to the ground will not stick, but it could make for an interesting day Wednesday as the cold core of the upper low moves right across North Texas.

Regardless, this will be an eventful week of weather..with a freeze for just about everyone by Wednesday night.

Tuesday I was the invited author and guest at Grove’s Elementary school in Wylie’s  first PTA Reading Night.

What a great audience of teachers, parents and children. I started by sharing a little bit about why I wrote Katie and the Magic Umbrella and my vision for Katie and future books. Then we turned down the lights and played my DVD animation of the story while I read to the kids. This is always a big hit when I visit schools.

Here’s a little photo summary  of the evening and a big thank you to the principal and staff of Grove’s for making my visit so fun and for making me feel so welcome!

This past weekend I hosted a booth at the Junior League of Arlington’s Holiday Magic gift market.

I can say that it was 3 full days of hard work, but the people and the atmosphere made it so much fun.

Between meeting and greeting, I did have some time to get a little of my own holiday shopping done (which was really nice) … and met some wonderful people.

This gift market also gave me the opportunity to showcase my new book coming out next month “Katie and the Magic Umbrella: On Snowflake Trail.” The book went to the printer last week and will be available by Dec 10th. I’m so excited!

If you didn’t make Holiday Magic this year, make sure you put it on your calendar for 2010.

Each week, I get so many emails from fans and folks wondering and worrying about the weather.

I’d like to start posting answers to some of your questions.

Please email me to rant, rave or if you’ve always wondered why storms always seem to miss your neighborhood!

If I don’t know the answer, I’ll try to find it…

With my new book Katie and the Magic Umbrella: On Snowflake Trail coming out in early December…I’ll even throw in a free book to the best kids’question received by December 1st, 2009! To win your child must write the question and include a photo in a letter. You can scan the letter and photo and email it back to me or send to: K.Co. Kids at PO Box 1743, Colleyville, TX 76034.

There are so many fun, family event going on around the DFW area.

Here are few that I know of:

Ranch Bash in Sundance Square, hosted by 95.9FM Ranch Radio

North Texas Kids is sponsoring a huge Family Expo at the Plano Centre

Trunk or Treat at Fellowship Church campus in Grapevine

And of course Trick of Treating in neighborhoods everywhere…

What’s the weather going to be like?    GORGEOUS!

Here’s a little map courtesy of the National Weather Service in Ft. Worth. with a look at the “Trick or Treat” forecast for Saturday evening.

Trick or Treat Forecast

If you are going to be out and about, even though winds will be light, it will cool down quickly once the sun sets. So dress your little ghosts and goblins with an extra layer. It will be a bit chilly after nightfall.

Yes!

After the 6th wettest October on record, we will finally dry out. Not just for a day or two, but at least 7!

The upper level weather pattern is beginning to change and the upper trough out west will finally be replaced by a strong ridge later this weekend and early next week. As I looked ahead to the end of next week, that ridge seems to hold strong. Below is the 500mb pattern for next Thursday morning showing a ridge in the west and the trough in the east.

Ridge West-Trough East

What this means is that North Texas will be under a NW flow aloft, which typically sends periodic cold fronts across Texas and keeps the Gulf of Mexico basically shut off. This will allow us to dry out for at least a week. Great news for our water-logged yards and overflowing creeks and streams.

This abnormally wet weather has done wonders for the Central/South Texas drought. The aquifers are filling up and residents there are certainly breathing a huge sigh of relief.

Another wonderful and very visual benefit of this wet weather is that we are getting  a beautiful display of fall colors this year. The moisture and chilly weather, sprinkled in with a few sunny days… allow the pigments in the leaves to trigger their brightest hues.

Here’s a photo from a maple tree in my front yard just this morning…Gorgeous!

Pretty...Pretty!

The rain is moving out just in time for the weekend…and the forecast couldn’t be better for the upcoming Texas Country Reporter Festival in Waxahachie this Saturday.

It’s a one day, all-day event and I’m so excited to be a part of it! I’ve known Bob Phillips for years and attended as part of the CBS11 team in years past…now I’m coming in a whole new role…as a children’s author.

I”ll be there all day signing books and hosting a booth filled with all of my latest Katie and the Magic Umbrella toys and merchandise, including these cool kids tees I designed myself.

They aren’t in stores just yet,  but I’ll have them with me on Saturday and coming soon on my website.

I also plan to do a reading for the kids around 2pm. Space is limited, so come early!

As the holidays approach, this is a great time to start thinking about the perfect gift for the little ones on your Christmas list.

I look forward to seeing you there!

That’s what my friend Heywood at 95.9 The Ranch called it today. Of course, he’s kidding. But it has been a very wet fall. I’ve had so many people ask why has it been so wet lately.

The short answer…an unusually active  jet stream that’s been unusually far south for this time of year.

It could be a result of the weak El Nino pattern that breeds more frequent storm systems over the Pacific that translate across the U.S. and enhance the jet streams. This is another factor for the non-existent hurricane season (too much wind in the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic).

Also..the polar jet really never gave up it’s grip on the eastern US all summer, carving a persistent trough over the Great Lakes which kept the east in a wet, cool pattern up until early September. Seems that pattern is back. The polar trough when it sits in the east keeps a steady train of cold fronts diving south into Texas and the plains. Case in point, last weekend we had a record low high temperature of only 59 on Sunday.

Storm track across US today

So..this is definitely not “Global Warming”, it’s not “Global Anything”!

It’s Earth’s atmosphere, doing what it does best…keeping things balanced with cyclical changes in the patterns that bring heat north and cold south…and in the process bringing drought to some and flooding rain to others. Next month it could all change.For the next few days..the northwest flow over Texas will bring in a few clouds Fri. Night and early Saturday, but in general expect a seasonably cool, beautiful fall weekend. Enjoy!