Hurricane Season 2009

I can’t believe June is almost here..let alone the official start of the Atlantic/Caribbean hurricane season.

It kicks off June first, and we are already seeing the signs that the upper level steering winds are beginning to transition across the Gulf from a cool weather season pattern to a warm season pattern. In fact, North Texas will see it’s share of tropical rain showers this Memorial Day weekend due to a tropical-type system that developed over the Florida and  is now moving west (not east) across the north Gulf of Mexico.

During the winter months these winds are predominantly for the west carrying systems from west to east. But during the summer months these winds are much weaker and/or switch to the east which often carry tropical systems westward into Texas and the gulf coast. 

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) just released it’s forecast  this week for the 2009 Atlantic/Caribbean hurricane season. Their scientists are predicting a 70% chance that we’ll see:

14 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes, and 1-3 of those will be major hurricanes (cat 3 or higher). This would make it an active season. What’s “normal”? An average season typically brings  11 named storms, 6 hurricanes with 2 majors.

Of course they can’t possibly predict where those hurricanes will develop or if they’ll make landfall. But realize that it only takes one landfalling hurricane to make a bad season. 

Why the active season? Evidently researchers have noticed the oceanic and atmospheric conditions are similar now to the conditions  that began a very active era starting in 1995. They have observed increased rainfall over western Africa, warmer Atlantic waters and decreased wind shear over the tropics which allows tropical systems to breed and strengthen.

They also do note that what could kill the season is if El Nino strengthens over the eastern equatorial Pacific ocean. This would influence ocean temperatures and wind patterns not only in the Pacific, but the Atlantic.  I’m okay with that!

Climate Factors (NOAA)

The first name on the list…Ana.

While tropical systems are a sure fire way to bring North Texas rain during the hot, dry summer months…we don’t want the hurricanes of late (like Ike) last year that killed many fellow Texans and displaced hundreds of thousands. The coastal areas near Houston and Galveston still haven’t fully recovered.

Hurricane Ike (NOAA)

There are 35 million people living near and along coastlines who are at risk of being impacted by tropical storms that develop in the Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean waters. While so many of us welcome those lazy days of summer, there are  35 million who always have an eye on the weather map…just in case.