Old Man Winter Visits Early…

Dust off those winter jackets and dig around in your closet…by late this weekend, you’ll be needing that coat and sweater…

An unusually strong, early-season arctic front is beginning to march across Montana and Wyoming tonight. I just spoke with my mother who lives in NW Montana, and she told me that they are forecasting lows in the single digits Friday and Saturday night..with snow in the forecast! Early October is way too early for her to be draining her sprinkler system.

Needless to say, our mild, sunny weekend here in North Texas, isn’t looking so sunny and mild anymore!

We will see 2 fronts this weekend. The first arrives Friday morning, but first we get torrential rain Thursday night/Friday AM,  and a few severe storms as a strong disturbance in the four corner rounds the base of a big upper trough out west. The heaviest rain I expect will occur here between 8pm Thursday and 9am Friday. We should gradually dry out Friday, but some could see 3-4″ of rain. Thus a flash flood watch is up for much of N. Tx.

As the first front moves through Friday morning…the rain will end gradually as dry polar air arrives. We’ll be lucky to see highs much above 65 Friday..and Friday night expect 40’s. While I do expect some sunshine the remainder of the weekend..the upper levels aren’t conducive to clearing..so don’t expect a lot of it.   If the cloud cover does stick around, the high temperature forecasts you’ve been watching on the local weather could be way off.  Computer models never handle shallow, arctic air very well…especially this early in the season.  It’s my experience that we need to prepare for air that’s quite a bit colder than most are predicting.

That said…the second front should arrive sometime late Saturday/early Sunday. Its arrival will be more subtle than the first, but it will remind us all that winter isn’t too far away. Highs Sunday will stay chilly with N/NE winds 10-20mph. Depending on the amount of sunshine..highs should stay in the 50’s. 60’s if there’s some sun. Many of us could see lows in the upper 30’s by Monday. A freeze isn’t likely.

The effects of this first arctic front should be minimal here, but Denver and many parts of the plains will see an unusually early snowfall. No telling if this is a sign of a severe/early winter…but it sure does make things interesting and reminds me why I love forecasting!