Rain, Snow or Sleet?

After a string of seasonably cool, sunny days a strong cold front arrives in North Texas early this afternoon. A few storms are possible, but the biggest change will come with the gusty north winds that will pick up this afternoon and evening and take temperatures down sharply overnight tonight.

Monday will be dry and much cooler. Do expect some sunshine mixed with clouds during the day. Highs will struggle to make it into the 50s, but if we see enough sun, 60 is possible. Bigger changes come Tuesday into Wednesday.

A potent upper level low is winding up over New Mexico and Arizona today. It will slowly shift eastward beginning Monday. This will spread thicker clouds ahead of it into North Texas.

By Tuesday, the lift associated with this system will finally start to squeeze enough moisture out of a very dry atmosphere as moisture slowly rides northwest along the back of a developing surface low along the Gulf coast. We will see rain develop quickly and continue much of the day Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Wednesday is the day to watch…

Here is an early forecast from one of the long range models used to forecast by most meteorologists.

6am Wednesday- Blue Shading Indicates Snow

By 12Z Wednesday this image shows some snow across West-Central Texas where temperature profiles will be cold enough for a snow/sleet mix that could reach the ground. As I looked at the midday Wednesday forecast, several models do show the temperature profile in the DFW area favorable for about a 6-10 hour timeframe (6am-4pm) where if precip falls, it could be in the form of a rain/sleet mix, especially late morning/early afternoon as we get the colder air funneling in on the backside of the storm.

The forecast challenges…

1. Will there be enough moisture left by the time the upper low crosses?

2. Will the 500-850mb temps be cold enough when the moisture is available?

Keep in mind, that ground temps are still very warm…so any winter precip that does make it to the ground will not stick, but it could make for an interesting day Wednesday as the cold core of the upper low moves right across North Texas.

Regardless, this will be an eventful week of weather..with a freeze for just about everyone by Wednesday night.