Often the effects of the El Nino on our weather wane as we get closer to summer. We’ll see.

As I look at the long-range models… the constant train of storm systems that continue to cross the southern third of the U.S. aren’t showing signs of slowing down anytime soon. So as we head into the spring, instead of frequent rounds of snow, we should expect frequent storms that could bring us a severe weather season we might not soon forget. Even if tornadoes and hail aren’t the big story, I have a feeling it could be the flooding.

Our lakes are full. So if the faucet doesn’t shut off with a few dry spells in March and April, the big rains we typically get in May could lead to some major problems.

Short term: What’s ahead for Monday and Monday night in North Texas?

More rain and a few embedded storms. While the Storm Prediction Center isn’t expecting any major severe weather outbreaks with this next system here..it’s dynamic enough for elevated rotating storms that could bring hail and powerful winds between late morning and early evening Monday.

Monday SPC Outlook

500mb Chart for Monday

Then we clear out and Tuesday looks fantastic with highs in the 70’s!

But another fast-moving system will jet through the Panhandle Wednesday bringing another quick shot at more storms before it moves out Thursday. So this week will be an active one weather-wise with quick changes.

I know there are many of you who love winter and the cold, but I am honestly thrilled that the weather is warming up. Time to get back in the garden, plant my herbs and flowers and spend long evenings on the patio. I can’t wait!

6 years ago, on Valentine’s Day,  North Texas was hit with the perfect snow storm. Huge, wet flakes fell across the area that Saturday leaving our area coated in white. Below you can see a graphic that shows the snowfall totals by the time all was said and done.

Valentine's Day Snowfall-Feb 14th, 2004

The good thing about this one, temperatures were near or above freezing. This meant the snow stacked up on everything…but the roads. So Sweethearts everywhere could still keep their special event and dinner plans.

NWS Ft Worth photo-Feb 14, 2004

Fast forward about 6 years and we are looking at similar situation, but the storms are much different. This storm isn’t built the same. The upper low isn’t as strong, however a unique surface/mid level boundary may bring the extra moisture and lift needed to create heavy snow bands that could drop 3-6″ of snow in areas about 40-60miles north and west of the Metroplex.

Here is the latest snowfall forecast from the National Weather Service as of late Wednesday evening as the latest computer guidance now shows 2-4″ possible in the metro area with much lighter amounts south and east.

Latest Snowfall Forecast

Regardless, the fun will begin Thursday morning with light snow and a winter mix first. Roads will be fine. As the atmosphere continues to cool and saturate, snow will begin to increase in coverage and intensity by late afternoon and evening as the storm gets closer, finally tapering off  late Thursday night.

Thursday’s evening commute could be treacherous as bridges and elevated surfaces get slushy and icy with temps near freezing. The worst road conditions will occur overnight and early Friday morning as lows bottom out in the upper 20’s.

Yes, schools may close or start late Friday morning and commuters will likely need to rethink their Friday schedules and plan to stay off the roads until temps climb above freezing..around 10-11am.

Ironically my kids are NOT excited about the snow this time. They don’t want to miss school and all the fun Valentine’s day parties that are planned. And if they miss Friday due to weather..they will have to make it up on Monday, a planned day off. Now that’s a bummer.

As of tonight..I think they’ll go to school Friday….and just get a late start.

We’ll see! It’s always interesting.

Since late November we’ve had more than our share of cold weather and a Christmas Eve blizzard to boot! Don’t know about you, but I’m really missing those occasional winter days in North Texas when we can see sun and highs in the 60’s and 70’s. Looking back at December, I noticed that we had 19 of 31 days where our high didn’t make it above 50 degrees. We also had 15 official freezes in December. The average is 10.  Of course the day I remember fondly was Dec 23rd..when DFW hit 75 degrees!  What a day that was! The next day…a blizzard that we’ll remember for years to come.

I think many Americans are probably questioning the validity of “Global Warming”, and they should be, given that we are experiencing one the coldest winters in many years with new studies showing that global temperatures last decade actually cooled. (This is a topic for another day )

I digress….

Tonight we are expecting another blast from the arctic that should be taken seriously. The front will arrive between 11pm and 2am Thursday morning…winds will shift abruptly to the north and howl all day Thursday and Thursday night, finally calming down late Friday. Wintery precip is possible, mainly in the form of freezing light rain or drizzle between 3am and 10am Thursday, then any lift for precip will shift east and as the cold, dry arctic air settles in. Once this happens, dew points will drop so drastically that I expect the clouds to start clearing out as early as Thursday evening and Thursday night.

The weather pattern that brings this kind of cold is called the McFarland Signature where a strong high pressure ridge at 500mb develops over Alaska and the northern Pacific creating a huge buckle (trough) that sends the bitter cold diving straight south into the central and eastern U.S.

While the cold will last about 3-4 days, it will be severe enough that if you don’t prepare your home and pets and businesses, you could be in for a wet, expensive mess. Pipe breaks and property damage will no doubt be in the news the next several days because people didn’t drip faucets or winterize their pipes and outdoor faucets properly. Temperatures will be dropping during the day Thursday and leading to our 2 coldest mornings..Friday and Saturday when temperatures will likely drop to between 8-12 degrees in some of our northern burbs, to 12-15 for our metro areas. Saturday morning should be the coldest with clear skies and the lightest winds. As new model runs come in we’ll know better whether we’re underestimating how cold it will truly get.

Fortunately, by Saturday and Sunday our highs will gradually climb above freezing again. Highs will be back into the 40’s by Sunday.

Looking ahead…our long-range models are showing signs that another big storm will develop over Texas that could spell trouble (more snow?) for North Texas by Friday of next week. Stay tuned!

North Texas woke up to its first snowfall of the season today. Might seem a bit early, but just 2 years ago we had snow on Thanksgiving Day. Remember that?

What fun to see the snow piling up on rooftops this morning.. and we didn’t  have to worry about slick or icy roads. The beauty of having snow this early when the ground is still so warm. Here are a few shots from my neighborhood about 8am.

What I also loved is that I could enjoy the fact that it was snowing and I didn’t have to be at the TV station. What a blessing!

Get ready..we aren’t done yet.

Looking at the latest computer guidance, arctic air will arrive tonight and tomorrow. While this very cold and relatively shallow air seeps in at the surface and mid levels…a strong upper trough will arrive late Thursday and early Friday creating the lift needed to squeeze out another round of snow for mainly the central and southern half of North Texas. While I think we’ll see snow here in the DFW area..it could be a more significant event for areas to our south  and east. From San Angelo to College Station and even the NW side of Houston could see snow on Friday.

We’ll dry out Friday night and the weekend looks dry. Upper 40’s Saturday, much warmer by Sunday.

Monday will be dry and much cooler. Do expect some sunshine mixed with clouds during the day. Highs will struggle to make it into the 50s, but if we see enough sun, 60 is possible. Bigger changes come Tuesday into Wednesday.

A potent upper level low is winding up over New Mexico and Arizona today. It will slowly shift eastward beginning Monday. This will spread thicker clouds ahead of it into North Texas.

By Tuesday, the lift associated with this system will finally start to squeeze enough moisture out of a very dry atmosphere as moisture slowly rides northwest along the back of a developing surface low along the Gulf coast. We will see rain develop quickly and continue much of the day Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Wednesday is the day to watch…

Here is an early forecast from one of the long range models used to forecast by most meteorologists.

6am Wednesday- Blue Shading Indicates Snow

By 12Z Wednesday this image shows some snow across West-Central Texas where temperature profiles will be cold enough for a snow/sleet mix that could reach the ground. As I looked at the midday Wednesday forecast, several models do show the temperature profile in the DFW area favorable for about a 6-10 hour timeframe (6am-4pm) where if precip falls, it could be in the form of a rain/sleet mix, especially late morning/early afternoon as we get the colder air funneling in on the backside of the storm.

The forecast challenges…

1. Will there be enough moisture left by the time the upper low crosses?

2. Will the 500-850mb temps be cold enough when the moisture is available?

Keep in mind, that ground temps are still very warm…so any winter precip that does make it to the ground will not stick, but it could make for an interesting day Wednesday as the cold core of the upper low moves right across North Texas.

Regardless, this will be an eventful week of weather..with a freeze for just about everyone by Wednesday night.

Tuesday I was the invited author and guest at Grove’s Elementary school in Wylie’s  first PTA Reading Night.

What a great audience of teachers, parents and children. I started by sharing a little bit about why I wrote Katie and the Magic Umbrella and my vision for Katie and future books. Then we turned down the lights and played my DVD animation of the story while I read to the kids. This is always a big hit when I visit schools.

Here’s a little photo summary  of the evening and a big thank you to the principal and staff of Grove’s for making my visit so fun and for making me feel so welcome!

I can say that it was 3 full days of hard work, but the people and the atmosphere made it so much fun.

Between meeting and greeting, I did have some time to get a little of my own holiday shopping done (which was really nice) … and met some wonderful people.

This gift market also gave me the opportunity to showcase my new book coming out next month “Katie and the Magic Umbrella: On Snowflake Trail.” The book went to the printer last week and will be available by Dec 10th. I’m so excited!

If you didn’t make Holiday Magic this year, make sure you put it on your calendar for 2010.

I’d like to start posting answers to some of your questions.

Please email me to rant, rave or if you’ve always wondered why storms always seem to miss your neighborhood!

If I don’t know the answer, I’ll try to find it…

With my new book Katie and the Magic Umbrella: On Snowflake Trail coming out in early December…I’ll even throw in a free book to the best kids’question received by December 1st, 2009! To win your child must write the question and include a photo in a letter. You can scan the letter and photo and email it back to me or send to: K.Co. Kids at PO Box 1743, Colleyville, TX 76034.

Here are few that I know of:

Ranch Bash in Sundance Square, hosted by 95.9FM Ranch Radio

North Texas Kids is sponsoring a huge Family Expo at the Plano Centre

Trunk or Treat at Fellowship Church campus in Grapevine

And of course Trick of Treating in neighborhoods everywhere…

What’s the weather going to be like?    GORGEOUS!

Here’s a little map courtesy of the National Weather Service in Ft. Worth. with a look at the “Trick or Treat” forecast for Saturday evening.

Trick or Treat Forecast

If you are going to be out and about, even though winds will be light, it will cool down quickly once the sun sets. So dress your little ghosts and goblins with an extra layer. It will be a bit chilly after nightfall.

After the 6th wettest October on record, we will finally dry out. Not just for a day or two, but at least 7!

The upper level weather pattern is beginning to change and the upper trough out west will finally be replaced by a strong ridge later this weekend and early next week. As I looked ahead to the end of next week, that ridge seems to hold strong. Below is the 500mb pattern for next Thursday morning showing a ridge in the west and the trough in the east.

Ridge West-Trough East

What this means is that North Texas will be under a NW flow aloft, which typically sends periodic cold fronts across Texas and keeps the Gulf of Mexico basically shut off. This will allow us to dry out for at least a week. Great news for our water-logged yards and overflowing creeks and streams.

This abnormally wet weather has done wonders for the Central/South Texas drought. The aquifers are filling up and residents there are certainly breathing a huge sigh of relief.

Another wonderful and very visual benefit of this wet weather is that we are getting  a beautiful display of fall colors this year. The moisture and chilly weather, sprinkled in with a few sunny days… allow the pigments in the leaves to trigger their brightest hues.

Here’s a photo from a maple tree in my front yard just this morning…Gorgeous!

Pretty...Pretty!