Sent the kids off this morning, went for a nice long 6-mile run and for the first time in 3 months I finally have a little time to write and get back to work.

Hot…Hot…Hot…I’m sure you’ll agree, August has truly been a tough month. After our nice early July rains, the faucet turned off and a monster upper level ridge has put North Texas under a pressure cooker, especially these past 3 weeks.

We had 18 consecutive 100 degree days (July 31-Aug 17th), making the streak the 7th longest since records have been kept at DFW. Clouds and a few showers/storms with a stalled front on the 18th brought us our only day so far this month below 100. The high that day…96.  Then on Sunday the 22nd DFW recorded a record high of 105, and today we are expecting another record high.

Tired of the heat? I have some good news.

A strong disturbance will cross the Northern Plains the next 2 days. This change in the upper level pattern will draw some much cooler surface air southward in the form of a cold front. This front will arrive here Tuesday afternoon as a “cool” front and with it the hope for a few scattered storms. While I think a little rain is possible, the clouds on Tuesday should be what helps to keep temps 5-10 degrees cooler than where we’ve been. Once the front moves south of us, our rain chances are done, but it will feel so much more pleasant.

By Wednesday, the lower levels dry out and a light NE breeze Wed-Thur should make our nights more comfortable ( upper 60s-low 70s), with highs more seasonable in the low to mid 90s. I’ll take it!

Enjoy it, the humidity and heat will be back. After all it’s still August. But at least we are coming down the home stretch and can look forward to pattern changes more often heading into September. Usually by early October our daily highs are back down in the 80s. Won’t that be nice?

Until next time……

The most memorable storm of the season so far…  the Christmas Eve blizzard that wrecked havoc with holiday travelers. This next storm, while it’s not expected to be as nasty of the Christmas Eve storm..it’s definitely one to watch. The ground is colder now and if snow and a winter mix does fall, it’s more likely to impact not just our bridges and elevated roads, but all roads, especially those less travelled. What we fortunately won’t have are the wild winds.

The models continue to show a slow start to the event. Dry air in the lower levels will keep the snow aloft through much of Wednesday night and Thursday morning. But by Thursday afternoon and evening as the upper low gets closer and lift stronger, we should start to see a steady light snow or winter mix that could begin to accumulate late Thursday and especially Friday morning when I expect any travel problems to be at their worst.

Some of us, could see 1-3″ of snow. The exact track of the upper low is key, but locations hit by  some of the heavier bands could see more. Schools and businesses need to be aware that travel may be dangerous enough by Thursday night and Friday morning to cause closures.

Temperatures will be tricky as they usually are. If the cloud cover holds off until late tonight, we’ll easily drop into the mid 20s. But clouds coming in quickly ahead of the system will trap the cold air tomorrow. The lingering dry air as precip falls into it Wed night and Thursday morning will allow for enough evaporational cooling to keep temps near or below freezing especially along and north of an Eastland to Athens line.

Here’s a graphic from the National Weather Service -Ft. Worth homepage this morning showing the areas that are most likely to see accumulating winter precipitation.

Stay tuned to your favorite local news station for the latest forecast. I’ll be posting an update by Wednesday afternoon giving my take on this next storm.

Then looking ahead to the weekend and early next week…

Once this storm shifts east it will allow another reinforcing shot of cold air to plunge in Sunday morning with possibly a few snow flurries. We will clear out quickly Sunday, but it will continue to remain cold through at least Monday, but at least we’ll see the sun.

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But temporary changes in the storm track this week are finally going to bring us some rain and because the Gulf of Mexico is wide open…we’ll have the low level moisture back and ideal wind shear for strong to severe storms. 

Storms developing in the Panhandle and West Texas tonight may bring some strong storms across the DFW area in the morning around daybreak, but  the main show is expected Tuesday/Tuesday night as a second strong disturbance crosses our region.  There is some discussion that this could pose as our first significant tornado threat of the year.

We’ll see how all the ingredients come together..so stay tuned to the latest forecasts on CBS 11. You’ll want to watch the weather closely between now and mid week. Could be an interesting ride!

Current radar shows the heaviest weather is to the north of the center of circulation. This area, which contains very heavy rains and wind gusts to near hurricane force, will pass through Alexandria and central Louisiana in the next several hours. It will then head in the vicinity of Shreveport by tomorrow morning.

There are several feeder bands rotating into the system on its east side, and storms within these bands have produced isolated tornadoes today.

IR Satellite continues to show a weakening system as cloud tops continue to warm as the system moves further inland. This weakening trend will continue with the hurricane being downgraded to a tropical storm later this evening or early Tuesday morning. It then could be a depression by late Tuesday or early Wednesday.