Rain, Snow or Sleet?

After a string of seasonably cool, sunny days a strong cold front arrives in North Texas early this afternoon. A few storms are possible, but the biggest change will come with the gusty north winds that will pick up this afternoon and evening and take temperatures down sharply overnight tonight.

Monday will be dry and much cooler. Do expect some sunshine mixed with clouds during the day. Highs will struggle to make it into the 50s, but if we see enough sun, 60 is possible. Bigger changes come Tuesday into Wednesday.

A potent upper level low is winding up over New Mexico and Arizona today. It will slowly shift eastward beginning Monday. This will spread thicker clouds ahead of it into North Texas.

By Tuesday, the lift associated with this system will finally start to squeeze enough moisture out of a very dry atmosphere as moisture slowly rides northwest along the back of a developing surface low along the Gulf coast. We will see rain develop quickly and continue much of the day Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Wednesday is the day to watch…

Here is an early forecast from one of the long range models used to forecast by most meteorologists.

6am Wednesday- Blue Shading Indicates Snow

By 12Z Wednesday this image shows some snow across West-Central Texas where temperature profiles will be cold enough for a snow/sleet mix that could reach the ground. As I looked at the midday Wednesday forecast, several models do show the temperature profile in the DFW area favorable for about a 6-10 hour timeframe (6am-4pm) where if precip falls, it could be in the form of a rain/sleet mix, especially late morning/early afternoon as we get the colder air funneling in on the backside of the storm.

The forecast challenges…

1. Will there be enough moisture left by the time the upper low crosses?

2. Will the 500-850mb temps be cold enough when the moisture is available?

Keep in mind, that ground temps are still very warm…so any winter precip that does make it to the ground will not stick, but it could make for an interesting day Wednesday as the cold core of the upper low moves right across North Texas.

Regardless, this will be an eventful week of weather..with a freeze for just about everyone by Wednesday night.

Tuesday I was the invited author and guest at Grove’s Elementary school in Wylie’s  first PTA Reading Night.

What a great audience of teachers, parents and children. I started by sharing a little bit about why I wrote Katie and the Magic Umbrella and my vision for Katie and future books. Then we turned down the lights and played my DVD animation of the story while I read to the kids. This is always a big hit when I visit schools.

Here’s a little photo summary  of the evening and a big thank you to the principal and staff of Grove’s for making my visit so fun and for making me feel so welcome!

This past weekend I hosted a booth at the Junior League of Arlington’s Holiday Magic gift market.

I can say that it was 3 full days of hard work, but the people and the atmosphere made it so much fun.

Between meeting and greeting, I did have some time to get a little of my own holiday shopping done (which was really nice) … and met some wonderful people.

This gift market also gave me the opportunity to showcase my new book coming out next month “Katie and the Magic Umbrella: On Snowflake Trail.” The book went to the printer last week and will be available by Dec 10th. I’m so excited!

If you didn’t make Holiday Magic this year, make sure you put it on your calendar for 2010.

Each week, I get so many emails from fans and folks wondering and worrying about the weather.

I’d like to start posting answers to some of your questions.

Please email me to rant, rave or if you’ve always wondered why storms always seem to miss your neighborhood!

If I don’t know the answer, I’ll try to find it…

With my new book Katie and the Magic Umbrella: On Snowflake Trail coming out in early December…I’ll even throw in a free book to the best kids’question received by December 1st, 2009! To win your child must write the question and include a photo in a letter. You can scan the letter and photo and email it back to me or send to: K.Co. Kids at PO Box 1743, Colleyville, TX 76034.

There are so many fun, family event going on around the DFW area.

Here are few that I know of:

Ranch Bash in Sundance Square, hosted by 95.9FM Ranch Radio

North Texas Kids is sponsoring a huge Family Expo at the Plano Centre

Trunk or Treat at Fellowship Church campus in Grapevine

And of course Trick of Treating in neighborhoods everywhere…

What’s the weather going to be like?    GORGEOUS!

Here’s a little map courtesy of the National Weather Service in Ft. Worth. with a look at the “Trick or Treat” forecast for Saturday evening.

Trick or Treat Forecast

If you are going to be out and about, even though winds will be light, it will cool down quickly once the sun sets. So dress your little ghosts and goblins with an extra layer. It will be a bit chilly after nightfall.

Yes!

After the 6th wettest October on record, we will finally dry out. Not just for a day or two, but at least 7!

The upper level weather pattern is beginning to change and the upper trough out west will finally be replaced by a strong ridge later this weekend and early next week. As I looked ahead to the end of next week, that ridge seems to hold strong. Below is the 500mb pattern for next Thursday morning showing a ridge in the west and the trough in the east.

Ridge West-Trough East

What this means is that North Texas will be under a NW flow aloft, which typically sends periodic cold fronts across Texas and keeps the Gulf of Mexico basically shut off. This will allow us to dry out for at least a week. Great news for our water-logged yards and overflowing creeks and streams.

This abnormally wet weather has done wonders for the Central/South Texas drought. The aquifers are filling up and residents there are certainly breathing a huge sigh of relief.

Another wonderful and very visual benefit of this wet weather is that we are getting  a beautiful display of fall colors this year. The moisture and chilly weather, sprinkled in with a few sunny days… allow the pigments in the leaves to trigger their brightest hues.

Here’s a photo from a maple tree in my front yard just this morning…Gorgeous!

Pretty...Pretty!

The rain is moving out just in time for the weekend…and the forecast couldn’t be better for the upcoming Texas Country Reporter Festival in Waxahachie this Saturday.

It’s a one day, all-day event and I’m so excited to be a part of it! I’ve known Bob Phillips for years and attended as part of the CBS11 team in years past…now I’m coming in a whole new role…as a children’s author.

I”ll be there all day signing books and hosting a booth filled with all of my latest Katie and the Magic Umbrella toys and merchandise, including these cool kids tees I designed myself.

They aren’t in stores just yet,  but I’ll have them with me on Saturday and coming soon on my website.

I also plan to do a reading for the kids around 2pm. Space is limited, so come early!

As the holidays approach, this is a great time to start thinking about the perfect gift for the little ones on your Christmas list.

I look forward to seeing you there!

That’s what my friend Heywood at 95.9 The Ranch called it today. Of course, he’s kidding. But it has been a very wet fall. I’ve had so many people ask why has it been so wet lately.

The short answer…an unusually active  jet stream that’s been unusually far south for this time of year.

It could be a result of the weak El Nino pattern that breeds more frequent storm systems over the Pacific that translate across the U.S. and enhance the jet streams. This is another factor for the non-existent hurricane season (too much wind in the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic).

Also..the polar jet really never gave up it’s grip on the eastern US all summer, carving a persistent trough over the Great Lakes which kept the east in a wet, cool pattern up until early September. Seems that pattern is back. The polar trough when it sits in the east keeps a steady train of cold fronts diving south into Texas and the plains. Case in point, last weekend we had a record low high temperature of only 59 on Sunday.

Storm track across US today

So..this is definitely not “Global Warming”, it’s not “Global Anything”!

It’s Earth’s atmosphere, doing what it does best…keeping things balanced with cyclical changes in the patterns that bring heat north and cold south…and in the process bringing drought to some and flooding rain to others. Next month it could all change.For the next few days..the northwest flow over Texas will bring in a few clouds Fri. Night and early Saturday, but in general expect a seasonably cool, beautiful fall weekend. Enjoy!

Dust off those winter jackets and dig around in your closet…by late this weekend, you’ll be needing that coat and sweater…

An unusually strong, early-season arctic front is beginning to march across Montana and Wyoming tonight. I just spoke with my mother who lives in NW Montana, and she told me that they are forecasting lows in the single digits Friday and Saturday night..with snow in the forecast! Early October is way too early for her to be draining her sprinkler system.

Needless to say, our mild, sunny weekend here in North Texas, isn’t looking so sunny and mild anymore!

We will see 2 fronts this weekend. The first arrives Friday morning, but first we get torrential rain Thursday night/Friday AM,  and a few severe storms as a strong disturbance in the four corner rounds the base of a big upper trough out west. The heaviest rain I expect will occur here between 8pm Thursday and 9am Friday. We should gradually dry out Friday, but some could see 3-4″ of rain. Thus a flash flood watch is up for much of N. Tx.

As the first front moves through Friday morning…the rain will end gradually as dry polar air arrives. We’ll be lucky to see highs much above 65 Friday..and Friday night expect 40′s. While I do expect some sunshine the remainder of the weekend..the upper levels aren’t conducive to clearing..so don’t expect a lot of it.   If the cloud cover does stick around, the high temperature forecasts you’ve been watching on the local weather could be way off.  Computer models never handle shallow, arctic air very well…especially this early in the season.  It’s my experience that we need to prepare for air that’s quite a bit colder than most are predicting.

That said…the second front should arrive sometime late Saturday/early Sunday. Its arrival will be more subtle than the first, but it will remind us all that winter isn’t too far away. Highs Sunday will stay chilly with N/NE winds 10-20mph. Depending on the amount of sunshine..highs should stay in the 50′s. 60′s if there’s some sun. Many of us could see lows in the upper 30′s by Monday. A freeze isn’t likely.

The effects of this first arctic front should be minimal here, but Denver and many parts of the plains will see an unusually early snowfall. No telling if this is a sign of a severe/early winter…but it sure does make things interesting and reminds me why I love forecasting!

Two cold fronts will impact North Texas this week. The first one arrives this afternoon bringing most of us a good shot at storms. Heavy rain and a few storms may contain hail. The best chance for severe weather will be near the Red River this morning and near and south of the DFW area this afternoon.

Here’s an image from the Ft. Worth National Weather Service homepage showing what can be expected today.

Strong storms with heavy rain today

Today’s front will push as far south as Central Texas and stall. Wednesday will stay  mostly cloudy and showers will still be possible, especially south and temps will stay mild in the low 70′s due to cloud cover and a light NE wind.

Another cold front will enter the area late Thursday night as a potent  upper low over the southwestern US begins to lift east. This will provide the instability that will trigger a squall line of severe storms that will roll through late Thursday night and early Friday morning.  Not only will we see nasty storms, but very heavy rain is also possible.

Rainfall Forecast

Some of us could see 1-2″ of rain in a very short amount of time.

The good news…after a week of storms and unsettled weather, North Texans can look forward to a beautiful, fall weekend. Perfect for the State Fair and Southlake’s Oktoberfest in Town Center.

Join me…I’ll be hosting a booth at Southlake’s Oktoberfest Fri-Sun. I’ll be signing copies of “Katie and the Magic Umbrella” and showcasing all my newest educational items related to the book.

In the meantime…buckle up…it’s going to be a bumpy ride!