Rain..Rain…Go Away?

Yes!

After the 6th wettest October on record, we will finally dry out. Not just for a day or two, but at least 7!

The upper level weather pattern is beginning to change and the upper trough out west will finally be replaced by a strong ridge later this weekend and early next week. As I looked ahead to the end of next week, that ridge seems to hold strong. Below is the 500mb pattern for next Thursday morning showing a ridge in the west and the trough in the east.

Ridge West-Trough East

What this means is that North Texas will be under a NW flow aloft, which typically sends periodic cold fronts across Texas and keeps the Gulf of Mexico basically shut off. This will allow us to dry out for at least a week. Great news for our water-logged yards and overflowing creeks and streams.

This abnormally wet weather has done wonders for the Central/South Texas drought. The aquifers are filling up and residents there are certainly breathing a huge sigh of relief.

Another wonderful and very visual benefit of this wet weather is that we are getting  a beautiful display of fall colors this year. The moisture and chilly weather, sprinkled in with a few sunny days… allow the pigments in the leaves to trigger their brightest hues.

Here’s a photo from a maple tree in my front yard just this morning…Gorgeous!

Pretty...Pretty!

The rain is moving out just in time for the weekend…and the forecast couldn’t be better for the upcoming Texas Country Reporter Festival in Waxahachie this Saturday.

It’s a one day, all-day event and I’m so excited to be a part of it! I’ve known Bob Phillips for years and attended as part of the CBS11 team in years past…now I’m coming in a whole new role…as a children’s author.

I”ll be there all day signing books and hosting a booth filled with all of my latest Katie and the Magic Umbrella toys and merchandise, including these cool kids tees I designed myself.

They aren’t in stores just yet,  but I’ll have them with me on Saturday and coming soon on my website.

I also plan to do a reading for the kids around 2pm. Space is limited, so come early!

As the holidays approach, this is a great time to start thinking about the perfect gift for the little ones on your Christmas list.

I look forward to seeing you there!

That’s what my friend Heywood at 95.9 The Ranch called it today. Of course, he’s kidding. But it has been a very wet fall. I’ve had so many people ask why has it been so wet lately.

The short answer…an unusually active  jet stream that’s been unusually far south for this time of year.

It could be a result of the weak El Nino pattern that breeds more frequent storm systems over the Pacific that translate across the U.S. and enhance the jet streams. This is another factor for the non-existent hurricane season (too much wind in the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic).

Also..the polar jet really never gave up it’s grip on the eastern US all summer, carving a persistent trough over the Great Lakes which kept the east in a wet, cool pattern up until early September. Seems that pattern is back. The polar trough when it sits in the east keeps a steady train of cold fronts diving south into Texas and the plains. Case in point, last weekend we had a record low high temperature of only 59 on Sunday.

Storm track across US today

So..this is definitely not “Global Warming”, it’s not “Global Anything”!

It’s Earth’s atmosphere, doing what it does best…keeping things balanced with cyclical changes in the patterns that bring heat north and cold south…and in the process bringing drought to some and flooding rain to others. Next month it could all change.For the next few days..the northwest flow over Texas will bring in a few clouds Fri. Night and early Saturday, but in general expect a seasonably cool, beautiful fall weekend. Enjoy!

Dust off those winter jackets and dig around in your closet…by late this weekend, you’ll be needing that coat and sweater…

An unusually strong, early-season arctic front is beginning to march across Montana and Wyoming tonight. I just spoke with my mother who lives in NW Montana, and she told me that they are forecasting lows in the single digits Friday and Saturday night..with snow in the forecast! Early October is way too early for her to be draining her sprinkler system.

Needless to say, our mild, sunny weekend here in North Texas, isn’t looking so sunny and mild anymore!

We will see 2 fronts this weekend. The first arrives Friday morning, but first we get torrential rain Thursday night/Friday AM,  and a few severe storms as a strong disturbance in the four corner rounds the base of a big upper trough out west. The heaviest rain I expect will occur here between 8pm Thursday and 9am Friday. We should gradually dry out Friday, but some could see 3-4″ of rain. Thus a flash flood watch is up for much of N. Tx.

As the first front moves through Friday morning…the rain will end gradually as dry polar air arrives. We’ll be lucky to see highs much above 65 Friday..and Friday night expect 40’s. While I do expect some sunshine the remainder of the weekend..the upper levels aren’t conducive to clearing..so don’t expect a lot of it.   If the cloud cover does stick around, the high temperature forecasts you’ve been watching on the local weather could be way off.  Computer models never handle shallow, arctic air very well…especially this early in the season.  It’s my experience that we need to prepare for air that’s quite a bit colder than most are predicting.

That said…the second front should arrive sometime late Saturday/early Sunday. Its arrival will be more subtle than the first, but it will remind us all that winter isn’t too far away. Highs Sunday will stay chilly with N/NE winds 10-20mph. Depending on the amount of sunshine..highs should stay in the 50’s. 60’s if there’s some sun. Many of us could see lows in the upper 30’s by Monday. A freeze isn’t likely.

The effects of this first arctic front should be minimal here, but Denver and many parts of the plains will see an unusually early snowfall. No telling if this is a sign of a severe/early winter…but it sure does make things interesting and reminds me why I love forecasting!

Two cold fronts will impact North Texas this week. The first one arrives this afternoon bringing most of us a good shot at storms. Heavy rain and a few storms may contain hail. The best chance for severe weather will be near the Red River this morning and near and south of the DFW area this afternoon.

Here’s an image from the Ft. Worth National Weather Service homepage showing what can be expected today.

Strong storms with heavy rain today

Today’s front will push as far south as Central Texas and stall. Wednesday will stay  mostly cloudy and showers will still be possible, especially south and temps will stay mild in the low 70’s due to cloud cover and a light NE wind.

Another cold front will enter the area late Thursday night as a potent  upper low over the southwestern US begins to lift east. This will provide the instability that will trigger a squall line of severe storms that will roll through late Thursday night and early Friday morning.  Not only will we see nasty storms, but very heavy rain is also possible.

Rainfall Forecast

Some of us could see 1-2″ of rain in a very short amount of time.

The good news…after a week of storms and unsettled weather, North Texans can look forward to a beautiful, fall weekend. Perfect for the State Fair and Southlake’s Oktoberfest in Town Center.

Join me…I’ll be hosting a booth at Southlake’s Oktoberfest Fri-Sun. I’ll be signing copies of “Katie and the Magic Umbrella” and showcasing all my newest educational items related to the book.

In the meantime…buckle up…it’s going to be a bumpy ride!

It began Friday and hasn’t stopped since. I think it’s been nearly 2 years since we’ve had 3-4 days of almost non-stop rain in the metroplex. One thing’s for sure…this kind of  rain has finally made my husband I do something about our leaky fireplace in the master bedroom!

Take a look at this map provided on the homepage of the Ft. Worth National Weather Service Forecast Office. It’s impressive. You can see the pink bulls-eye in SW Dallas and Northern Ellis counties where the doppler radar estimates show that between 8-10 inches of rain has fallen. Wow!

7 Day Rainfall Totals

Before this weekend, North Texas was actually sitting pretty in terms of rainfall. We weren’t abnormally dry or wet. Now many of our rivers, creeks and streams are at or above capacity, especially the Trinity River south of Dallas. Fortunately the upper level storm system responsible for washing out our weekend plans is slowly beginning to move away and the rain will become more scattered beginning Tuesday…with Thurs/Friday being the drier days this week.

But there may be another system arriving later this coming weekend and early next week bringing more changes including a cold front that could really bring us a taste of fall.

It’s doubtful we will see any more 100 degree heat now that we are so saturated and the long-range models show no pattern to suggest otherwise. So we can be grateful for that and the fact that we aren’t drought-stricken, like so much of South Texas.

So keep the umbrellas handy…we aren’t quite done yet.

Speaking of umbrellas…does anyone have wild mushrooms growing in their yard the size of a child’s umbrella? I think my kids could fit under a few that are growing in my backyard!

I’m enjoying my new role as chief meteorologist (Heywood calls me Admiral) on the Ranch Radio. That’s 95.9FM on the dial in the DFW Metroplex. The wonderful thing about it is I can be chief from home in my PJ’s and slippers! Well, not really.

It’s called Kristine’s Corner…

Listen Friday's at 7:45am

Every Friday morning around 7:45am …I call in and talk about the weekend weather and whatever else comes to mind. It’s great fun! The weather part is easy, but the corner part I’m still working on. Maybe a little weather trivia….to keep things interesting.

I hope you’ll tune in, and if you don’t live in the DFW area you can always go their website  www.95.9theranch.com

Climate change is a very hot topic and a controversial one. I don’t know of many other issues other than abortion and taxes that stir up such emotion and angst in people.

I have spent hours researching the data myself  and have even put together an educational program geared to help my audience understand both sides of the debate…is the Earth warming on it’s own , or is man-kind responsible?

I’ve never been one to “stir the pot” on this issue, but now that I’m no longer in an industry where I have to be careful about sharing my opinion…I can share my opinion.

While the data proves that the earth has been warming, it’s supposed to warm after an ice age! The  increase in global temperatures this past century have waned since the mid 90’s. But keep in mind the timeline of the Earth and all the variables that contribute to climate change.

I just don’t believe man-kind is totally responsible. There are forces and variables out there I don’t think human science will ever exist long enough to flush out and understand. Our existence has been so brief..just a speck on the earth’s timeline. What do we really know?

I do know that the public has been totally misled and brain-washed into believing carbon dioxide is the devil we are creating…melting the ice caps and killing polar bears. We are also being brain-washed into an arrogance that we are capable of fixing what we are breaking.

In the last 30 years your exposure to the subject has come from those of power who manipulate what you do and don’t know about the true science of climate change. It’s complicated..and instead of calling it was it is…climate change… you hear global warming. And global warming has become a religion where you are being made to feel guilty if you aren’t worried about your carbon footprint, or spending more of your hard-earned money on “green” products. And this is just the beginning…be very worried about Cap-and-Trade and the governments attempts to “stop the warming”.

I do wish that more of the public at large would dig deeper on their own and search out the truth rather than believe what they  see, hear, and read from mainstream media sources.

One fact: Carbon dioxide is a TRACE greenhouse gas.  The real greenhouse gas is water vapor, an ever-changing gas in our atmosphere. Think about it. Modern meteorologists have a hard enough time getting the 5-7 day right using computer models that try to predict what tropospheric water vapor is going to do. Trying to figure out what this big player will do out 50-100 years? Impossible! It’s the same with carbon dioxide. Even though isotopes and carbon dating are helpful to study the past. Can we really use our super computers to estimate levels out decades or centuries? We can try, but do we make decisions on that data that impact millions of people now?

I want for the public to wake up to global warming, like they’ve awakened with the health care debate. I would be happy to be just one of many out there educating…one who doesn’t have a political or professional agenda, but just wants share the facts and search out the truth.

There are many fantastic websites out there to gather information, too many for me to share..but I did want to share this great article from Sky and Telescope which prompted me to write this blog. It talks about the solar cycles and how scientists are beginning to piece together the relationship between the cycles, the stratosphere and our oceans. Please read below and I’d love to hear your comments.

http://www.skyandtelescope.com/news/56631092.html

Isn’t this photo amazing?

These are Morning Glory Clouds….taken Aug 24th, 2009.

This photo was taken by Mick Petroff from his airplane over the Gulf of Carpenteria in Austrailia where  these rare clouds occur every spring. Remember, it is spring in the southern hemisphere!

We aren’t quite clear on how they form, but a general explanation is:  when moist, cool air  flowing  off the ocean or large body of water encounters an inversion layer (an atmospheric layer where air temperature atypically increases with height).. long, horizontal, circulating tubes of air are created condensing into these roll clouds. These horizontally rotating currents of air create severe turbulence and can be very dangerous to aircraft.  Here in North Texas, we also see similar roll clouds proceeding the downburts from severe thunderstorms, and certain cold fronts.

If you love to learn about unique atmospheric or astronomical phenomena, I encourage you to  visit http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/archivepix.html for your Astronomy Picture of the Day. This site is very educational and fun. My son, who is really into space,  and I look at it everyday.

On Thursday October 8th, I am partnering with Simple Science Solutions for a unique Earth Science Training workshop. This full-day workshop will show elementary science teachers easy, creative and inexpensive ways to teach their students important TAKS aligned activities related to Earth Science.

Some of the topics include: Constructive Forces…Destructive Forces…Earth’s Resources…Sun-Moon_Earth interaction  and new to TEKS…Weather!

That’s where I come in. I am so excited to be working with Courtney Williams and Gloria Chatelain, both very experienced science educators, to put together an afternoon session where I will share my knowledge and expertise as a veteran meteorologist to relate the atmosphere to what their students need to learn to satisfy TAKS requirements.

I will  provide easy activities teachers can take back to the classroom.  I will also show participants in the workshop how to use my latest children’s book “Katie and the Magic Umbrella: A Stormy Adventure” as a teaching tool.  It’s truly a must-have for any school library.

Where: Brookside Convention Center

1244 Brookside Drive

Hurst, TX 76053

When: Thursday, Oct 8th

9am-3pm

Who: Elementary teachers, Science Coordinators, and Administrators

Space is limited…so don’t miss out and register today!

Please contact erin@kcokids.com directly or log on to www.simplesciencesolutions.com for more information.

Click below to download the registration form…hope to see you there!

Teacher Workshop Flyer

Kristine